Once upon a time there were a group of two dozen cake chefs. They used to bake cakes all day. One day, the chefs met and said why not get together to make a giant cake. If we work together, they said, we can make one huge cake that we can individually make ourselves. It sounded like a brilliant idea. A huge, pathbreaking cake was going to be made. However, as they mixed the dough, one of the chefs asked, ‘after we are done making this cake, how do we slice it up? I mean, who gets to slice it? Who gets the bigger piece? And how do we know it is all fair?’ All the chefs looked at each other and within seconds, mistrust grew in the otherwise cheerful room. ‘I will, as I am senior,’ said the oldest chef.’ ‘No I will,’ said a young chef, ‘as I brought the butter and that’s the most expensive ingredient.’ ‘No I want to, as I brought the sugar and without sugar the cake won’t taste good at all,’ said another. Pandemonium broke out, and the chefs spilled the dough on each other. A big chef from Bihar simply left the room. The big cake party was over before it started. Oh, do you know what the group of chefs had decided to call themselves before they fought with each other? I.N.D.I.A. That was the lettering that was supposed to be put as icing on the big cake. Maybe it stood for ‘I’m Never Doing It Again.’
Why is I.N.D.I.A crumbling? A friend of mine is excellent with making a triangular, pyramid like house out of playing cards. It takes him lot of time and effort to make it. It looks beautiful. Everyone appreciates it. Alas, we all know one thing. The house of cards will collapse. That it will inevitably come crumbling down. The reason – it lacks a foundation. The same is true for I.N.D.I.A.
The opposition grouping comprising of the Congress and over two dozen other parties was a minor miracle. Never had so many political parties come together on one stage. They said they will present one, unified front against the BJP. This would allow vote consolidation. Mathematically and theoretically, it would lead to all kinds of gains in the number of seats. It would also allow a for a common message and agenda to be sent out to the public. They came up with a catchy name, managed to grab some headlines by boycotting some news anchors. They also did a few meetings together, and took group pictures.
However, it was inevitably destined to crumble. Because, like a house of cards, I.N.D.I.A. too lacked a foundation. The members only reason to co-exist was that together the grouping could attain more seats overall owing to vote share arithmetic. There was no common narrative of the group that had mass resonance in the Indian voters. Essentially, it was built around the hope of baking a bigger cake together. But the important issue of cake slicing was never agreed upon. The overall group cake might be bigger, but you as a chef will get a smaller piece than if you baked it on your own. Would you still like to come on board, my dear chefs from Bengal, Bihar and Punjab?
That is the problem in such alliances, where poll victory is seen as cake, or a reward for themselves. The grouping exists to get the biggest cake. However, winning elections and getting power is also about serving the public. The voting public didn’t see what this new grouping will bring to governance that the current regime cannot. Neither do the voters understand the INDIA narrative, which is often contradictory and confusing, if it exists at all.
Meanwhile, we are at the slicing stage and the inevitable collapse has begun. The recent assembly elections (Rajashtan, MP, Chattisgarh, Telangana, Mizoram) are a case in point. No matter what happened, fissures were destined to appear in the alliance. If the Congress did extremely well, it would have made the Congress believe that they can do it all on their own. Hence, they do not need to share the cake as much with others. If the Congress did badly (as it did), it means now the other members don’t want to give Congress a bigger slice of the cake. Either way, it was all pointing to an eventual collapse of the alliance.
Some of it is specifically the Congress’ problem and the way it views itself. The Congress, in desperation, reaches out to other parties. However, deep down, Congress still believes that they are the big national party. Hence, they are the natural opposition to the BJP. The regional parties are just there to assist them (sort of like the UPA). Perhaps the memories of being in power for six decades makes it difficult to see the new reality. That Congress cannot make this INDIA thing work if Arvind Kejriwal, Mamta Banerjee and Nitish Kumar are all upset and are at various stages of walking away (Nitish Kumar has officially left and joined BJP led NDA alliance). I.N.D.I.A. is no UPA. The overall narrative, decision making and the cake slicing all had to happen differently. This battle to control the cake knife between the various chefs is only cutting up the alliance. The Congress believes it is the grand old chef and is entitled to naturally control the knife. Other members believe they are bringing important ingredients so they need to slice the cake. Looks like this tug-of-war on knife control is only cutting up the alliance and finally there will not be much cake to be had.