We are winning this. 60 out of 90 seats. No, 70 seats. Could be 80 as well. Of course, there will be a Congress Tsunami. Farmers are upset with the BJP and will vote Congress. The Jats are with the Congress this time. The youth didn’t like Agniveer, and they are also upset with the BJP. People in Haryana want change. This is an easy win; the only question is how big the majority will be. Look, all opinion polls suggest Congress will win. See, even the exit polls now suggest Congress will win.
These statements were rife in the media and social media during the Haryana assembly elections. The results: BJP – 48 (majority), Congress – 37. To be fair, vote shares were close (BJP 39.9%, Congress 39.1%), suggesting the BJP didn’t score a massive victory. However, given the pre-election Congress hype and overconfidence, the Haryana defeat looks particularly bad for the Congress. This isn’t the first time Congress has lost elections it was poised to win—Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh are all recent examples.
There is a mini-industry around giving expert advice to the Congress. This piece will not do that. The Congress will, and probably is, making its own introspections. However, the Haryana results give us a peek into how Indian politics works and the current state of play. Here are five observations and some key lessons for everyone:
1. Social media is a weak indicator of public sentiment – Social media feeds only show algorithm-driven extreme views, optimized for reach and engagement. They miss the large mass of people in the middle who neither have nor express polarized views. It’s this mass in the middle that decides elections. Relying on social media to gauge the mood is likely to fail. Lesson: Keep your ear on the (real) ground, always.
2. BJP’s vote share is intact – After the Lok Sabha results, there was a narrative that the BJP’s support was declining while the Congress was on the rise. Haryana was supposed to be further evidence of this. However, the results show the BJP is still strong, and its voter base intact. There’s no mass exodus of BJP voters toward the Congress. At best, the non-BJP vote has consolidated better in a few cases, which then leads to the BJP underperforming. The INDIA grouping is an example. However, the Congress was so confident about winning Haryana that it went solo, ignoring AAP and SP. Even a slight increase in vote share through alliance arithmetic could have changed the game. The Congress can only stand tall on the ladder created by its allies. To think it no longer needs that ladder is setting itself up for a fall. Lesson: When you can’t go solo, never abandon your allies.
3. There isn’t a wave – Waves in Indian politics are rare. When they do happen, they are great for the party benefiting from them. Whether it was the Modi wave in 2014 or the Congress sympathy wave in 1984, wave elections overwhelmingly go one way, ignoring other local factors. We are not in that era now. People may be more receptive to Rahul Gandhi and willing to listen to him. However, there’s no Rahul Gandhi or Congress wave anywhere currently. Lesson: In a waveless environment, each election must be won on its own merits.
4. Brazen identity politics rarely works – Let’s face it, Congress is trying to play caste politics using the caste census and removal of reservation caps as key agenda items. It hopes this could splinter some of the Hindu vote consolidation, which normally favors the BJP. It’s a separate discussion whether this is good or ethical politics (like most issues, there’s good mixed with the bad). However, brazen identity politics almost never works, as it may appeal to one section of voters but alienates others. Even the BJP keeps the “Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas” slogan at the forefront, regardless of its politics. Congress has gone too far, too deep, and too early in the caste politics game, and while it has supporters, many others are upset. Lesson: Identity politics is a fine art, where you can’t be seen as openly divisive, even when trying to attract a segment of voters based on identity.
5. Social Justice plus Massive Growth – Congress is big on social justice, which is a good thing. People who have faced injustice, marginalized groups, and the underprivileged will resonate with this message. However, there’s a huge aspirational Indian voter who also wants to get rich, make money, live a good life, and rise to the top. The risk of constantly delivering social justice and equality messages is that you may come across as anti-success, anti-growth, and anti-rich—something many voters dislike. Maybe highlight that social justice and progress are linked? Right now, Congress seems to be missing the aspirational element in its messaging. Lesson: Most Indian voters are young and aspirational. Not delivering a message that caters to their aspirations is a big mistake.
The relatively small state of Haryana has delivered a good reality check for all parties, media, and observers of Indian politics. Let’s see who learns their lessons and who doesn’t.