It is that time of the five years where there is an opinion poll a week on the upcoming elections. This time, one of the first questions every poll tries to answer is this: Will Narendra Modi win?
Of course, like with opinions, same with opinion polls, there’s no agreement. Some see a major swing in his favour, others say a third-front government, while still others say Congress is coming back to power. In other words, we have no idea.
So, will he? As of now, there is only one conclusion – it is possible, but it’s not easy.
So why won’t India, sick of poor governance, vote for Modi, the new shiny symbol of hope? Besides the obvious ‘no Muslim vote’ arguments , there are other reasons. Unfortunately, I don’t think Team Modi is thinking these through. In the spirit of ‘nobody is perfect’ it is worthwhile to note some glaring errors Modi is making as far as pure politics is concerned. Here are four. One, the first rough edge is an inability to blend. While a strong personality is a positive, it must be able to amalgamate with others as well. Modi stands tall on his own, but somehow does not work so well as a combo meal. Many regional allies are still afraid to be seen on stage with Modi. If Modi’s development image is so strong, why don’t regional leaders stand next to him to come across as pro-development ? A softening of Modi’s image and his supporters being less vitriolic in their response to critics will help.
Right now, team Modi risks turning into a cult. It is reminiscent of RSS, who though doing good work, are unable to become as acceptable as other social work organizations. Two, there is a tendency to take too many pot-shots . After a while it comes across as too negative and vicious. Everyone knows the weaknesses of our current PM. People should see Modi as the solution , not as a critic. Doing a stand-alone speech on Independence Day was fine. However, an open challenge to the PM, and an almost pointwise rebuttal of the PM’s speech two hours later, was not the classiest act. While his existing supporters may cheer, fence sitters may feel alarmed at the aggression.
Three, there seems to be an overselling of Modi and underselling of the BJP. Modi-hype is rising to the point where sections of the population see him as a messiah. His supporters feel the election is a vote on him and only he matters in the BJP. This is incorrect. In practical terms Modi provides a little push, a small swing to the BJP’s numbers. While small swings can lead to big results , he isn’t the election himself. People in India either vote on the caste of the local candidate or issues like “Will I get water in my slum?” We essentially have local elections. A majority of the voters do not care about the economy, concepts like India-first or high-level corruption. (If they did, India would not be in as terrible state as it is today.) In such a scenario, to oversell Modi, and undersell the local BJP leaders is silly. Do not mistake a popular leader providing a little push as the saviour himself. Modi will not win every seat for the BJP. Local BJP MPs, ministers and CMs will win the seats, with Modi’s added boost. If the BJP wins a lot of seats, Modi will become PM. Hence, Modi needs the BJP as much as the BJP needs him.
Four, there is need to adapt his personality to pan-Indian sensitivities. Too much aggression doesn’t work well for certain Indian cultures – for instance in the southern states. Modi is a stranger to them. A man tightening his fist and attacking every word of the already familiar, even if flawed, Congress is not going to gain much traction. An understanding of Indian cultures, and adapting one’s personality and body language to attune to the locals is essential. Gujarati food may be lovely, but it is not to all Indians’ taste. In a pan-Indian clientele, a neutral, staple Indian buffet, even if less authentic, may attract more customers.
Modi is on a strong wicket. Things are much better for him and his supporters than even a few months ago. If they want this hype to deliver results the rough edges need to be polished. For, without cutting-and-polishing even a diamond doesn’t shine, and remains just a stone.