Step outside to a public area in any India city – retail shops, bus stops, train stations –it is almost like Covid never happened. Sure, a few people still wear face masks, (though many of those too are below the nose or mouth level). You also see some worn out posters of social distancing and covid protocols. However, for the most part, Indians are out – at work or at play. They are attending offices and weddings. They are shopping out or eating out. They are taking buses, trains, and flights. Google Mobility Data, a special mobility trends dataset created for Covid shows that most Indian public spaces are now just as busy as pre-Covid, if not more.
Covid of course, is not fully gone. Cases are rising, even though the death numbers are thankfully not. It is impossible to predict the future with something like Covid, but for now – we are back in business.
Our neighbour China on the other hand, faces a different situation. Covid cases are rising there dramatically, and severe lockdowns are back. China effectively kept Covid in check for the last two years, even as the world raged with it. This so-called ‘Covid-Zero’ policy eventually didn’t work, just as it didn’t anywhere else in the world, From New Zealand to Australia to China, even the strictest countries had to finally deal with the outbreaks, have a rite of passage of sorts with respect to this virus and then inch back to normalcy. Sure, delayed onset did give some countries time to prepare and vaccinate more people. Yet, Covid cases did eventually rage, people did fell sick until eventually the virus so called passed through the system.
Covid’s passing through China right now. Cases will eventually rise and then drop, like they have in every other country in the world. Whatever the relations might be between India and China, we truly wish the virus leaves China soon and the nightmare is over for them.
For now, however, the nightmare is on. A large city like Shanghai (population: 2.6crores) was locked down with people confined to their buildings for weeks. Many other cities in China have the same story. Visitors to China, if at all they get permission to enter, face up to 21-day quarantines. It’s hard on families. It’s hard on business. It has also led to a worsening of a problem the world is already dealing with – supply chain issues. Chinese lockdowns have meant workers can’t reach factories, which means factory output drops, which means the world doesn’t get goods. People in the USA currently complain about long waits for several items – beds, closets, automobiles and appliances to name a few.
The problem is real. And with every problem comes an opportunity. An opportunity for someone to solve that problem and be a savior and hero. That hero and savior can be India.
The solution to global supply chain issues is India. China, with unmatched efficiency, costs, productivity and infrastructure became the manufacturing king of the world. It became so logical to choose China that the world flocked China in droves. However, today, that same dependence on China is causing problems. Today, companies worldwide are finally willing to listen to something we have been trying to say for years – Make in India.
Make no mistake, the current Chinese supply chain issues are a once-in-a-lifetime, limited opportunity for India to shine and present itself as an alternate, diversified manufacturing hub. The opportunity is now, for a limited time only. For Covid and lockdowns will eventually go away in China as well. The world will simply forget Chinese manufacturing problems of the past, just as the uncles at crowded Indian weddings today have forgotten Covid of last year. The world too will get into a complacent lull, as cheap and efficient Chinese goods start flowing to them again. Hence, India must act now to attract investments, when procurement managers worldwide are frustrated and scratching their heads, wondering where to get a shipload of sneakers or engine parts they needed last week.
India must act and announce a mega-plan to attract more companies here as soon as possible. To be fair, several schemes have been announced to attract manufacturing here. Apple now makes in India. Tesla is being courted as well. However, this unique window we have, when Chinese manufacturing is facing issues and we are fully open for business may never come again. What are we doing to ensure that every company in the world feels it must have a manufacturing setup in India? Are we clearing all the hurdles? Just was we have inspectors and bureaucrats who are ready to stop operations if something is going wrong, do we have senior government officials incentivized to do the opposite? Can we perhaps have bureaucrats who are relationship managers, whose job is evaluated based on how many new companies did they help get up and running in India? Attracting investments isn’t always about offering monetary incentives and tax breaks (Indian corporate tax rates are already moderate). What often attracts investors is predictability, efficiency, and peace of mind. How can we offer that?
This is not a China vs India debate. China has its manufacturing strengths, and will remain a powerhouse. However, the global manufacturing pie is so big that India deserves and can get a bigger slice of it. The time however is now. It’s time to tell the world that India is open, welcoming, and ready for business. It’s time for Indian manufacturing to be a hero and save the world.