Among the recent events that have taken centrestage are the Cabinet reshuffle and the elitist mocking of the new health minister’s English. However, we must bring attention back to the one issue that matters the most — increasing the pace of Covid-19 vaccinations. Lives, economy, and a return to normalcy are all at
risk if we don’t get enough vaccinations done on time.
This piece doesn’t intend to bash the current vaccination effort; rather there is much that deserves praise including a relatively simple and effective CoWin app, the hundreds of millions of doses already administered across the country, and digital vaccination certificates (something even many advanced countries don’t have).
And yet, we won’t get all the desired benefits if we do not vaccinate close to 70% of our population. Currently, just over 5.5% of the population has received both doses, while around 23% received the first dose. Of course, India’s numbers are huge on an absolute basis (370 million doses administered), but a lot more is needed to get to 70%.
Enough evidence now exists (Israel, the UK, US) of countries showing a rapid decline in cases, particularly in serious cases and deaths once 70% of the population is given at least one jab. India’s cases are down right now, but we obviously cannot be complacent like February, when we thought we had beaten the coronavirus. Until we hit the 70% vaccination mark, the sword of the third, fourth, fifth wave continues to hang over our heads, especially since Indians aren’t very good at Covid precautions. Even the PM has expressed concern over maskless Indians recently swarming small hill stations (with minimal healthcare facilities). Indians are not and cannot be vaccinated for common sense. Hence, large-scale Covid vaccinations are the only way Indians can protect themselves.
And it’s doable. If we can demonetise and swap every 500 rupee note; if we can get a billion Aadhar cards issued; we can surely get Mission 70% vaccination done too.
The current rate of vaccination is around 4 million doses a day (June-July 21 data). We need close to 2 billion doses administered to achieve 70% vaccination. We have already administered 370 million doses. Hence, at current rates (4 million/day), the balance of 1,630 million doses will take us 407 days, which is more than a year. This is too slow, unless we are okay with several more corona waves, India being shut to the world and our economy and job situation being in a terrible state until September 2023!
We need to accelerate to 10 million doses a day to achieve the balance targets in 167 days, roughly by year-end. Two reasons are causing the slower vaccinations. The first is supply. India didn’t order in time initially. That was somewhat corrected. However, even now there are two issues. One, some residual pointless vaccine nationalism. Two, a penny-pinching mentality when it comes to ordering foreign vaccines. It’s great to have Covaxin and Covishield (foreign vaccine, but manufactured here) but these won’t help if we don’t have them in enough numbers. Time is of the essence. If your mother is hospitalised and needs medicine, will you check the country of manufacture first? Then why invoke inane vaccine nationalism at all? The second issue interfering in supply is money. Indians hate to overpay. Many countries paid 3x the price for mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna just to get them early. Yes, they are expensive but still enormously worth it. Calculate the cost of lives lost, reduction in GDP and tax collections, job losses and business closures vs paying extra for the vaccines. A smart entrepreneur mentality will pay up and get the vaccine ASAP. I am not against the Indian middle-class concept of value. However, there is a time to save and there is a time to spend. We can bargain when we buy sarees but not when it comes to vaccine shopping.
The second issue is rising vaccine hesitancy or indifference. The fall in Covid cases means there are (thankfully) no more visuals of people gasping for oxygen outside hospitals. However, it also means many do not feel the urgency to get jabbed. Vaccine awareness campaigns help, but only go so far. Even the US did lotteries, free cab rides and other incentives to encourage Americans to get vaccinated. Some countries have allowed vaccinated people to do activities such as attending sporting events. We need to consider some of these measures too.
Indians sometimes tend to be okay with jobs half done and to a mediocre level. However, when it comes to Covid vaccinations, a middling or even a decent job won’t work. We need to be excellent. We need to do what it takes to achieve Mission 70%. There is simply no bigger national priority right now.