Goldilocks, the childhood tale of a girl and three bears is who finds her porridge ‘just right’ is used to describe something that is ‘just right,’ which was this election.
The recent Lok Sabha election was the rare one where all stakeholders end up looking good. BJP is happy to be forming a government for the third time, a record of sorts. NDA allies are happy as they have more say in the government. The Congress is happy to double its tally from solid drubbings in 2014 and 2019. INDIA group is happy to get 234 seats, making them a formidable opposition and even hopeful of winning power one day. The voters are happy because they made a point. The EC is happy as nobody is blaming them or the EVMs. Media is happy because politics in India is no longer one sided, allowing for more drama and hopefully more freedom.
A new third-term NDA government is now in place. Everything seems back to normal. However, hiding in these Goldilocks elections is a message – a potential tectonic shift in Indian politics.
For the results were a massive shock, in terms of the BJP’s final seat tally. From 303 in 2019, BJP ended up at 240, losing 63. However, dig deeper and you find that the 63 net loss came from losing 92 existing seats, gaining 32 seats in new places and giving 3 seats away to allies. The NDA in total achieved 293 seats, enough for a majority but far less than the expectations of nearly or crossing 400 seats. These expectations weren’t baseless or based on mere slogans (400 paar) alone. They were reasonable. Here’s five reasons why – 1) PM Modi, survey after survey, had some of the highest approval ratings of any heads of state in the world. 2) The recent big assembly elections – Rajasthan, MP, Chattisgarh – all unexpectedly went to the BJP. In the Lok Sabha election, one adds PM Modi’s appeal, and hence a vote share bump of 5-10% was expected making these states to be a cakewalk. 3) In 80-seat mega-state UP, CM Yogi is seen as one of the most popular CMs of India. Again, add the Modi factor, and UP was an expected home run. 4) In Bihar, Nitish Kumar joined NDA, again a big boost. 5) Expected new inroads in the South and East. Given all this, the BJP/NDA were indeed expected to do better than 2019 and come close to the magic 400 mark. Except it didn’t.
What happened? Plenty of theories abound, but there’s two main ones. One, the arithmetic. The opposition finally came together and consolidated the anti-BJP vote, and winning in many places despite the BJP’s vote share being intact. Two, the chemistry. Or that the BJP’s appeal declined somewhat. For reason two, we will need to see more evidence such as the results of the upcoming state assembly elections.
Whatever it is, a soul-searching exercise for the BJP is required to figure out what is going on. Sure, BJP won and remains dominant. However, what is the trend? Where is their popularity going – up, down or stagnant? How do the new generation of voters, see the BJP, their ideology, leadership and message? The key questions the BJP needs to introspect about are these:
1) Reality Check – How did the BJP not know about the growing discontent in a significant chunk of voters? Is the media not showing a certain reality (say for instance Ayodhya, where there seemed to be a re-housing issue)? What else is getting missed? Is leadership surrounding themselves with sycophants or people who give the true message?
2) Regaining Ground – How can BJP get those lost voters back, and add new ones? Did they go too far in their ideological push, which kept the base happy, but made the marginal voter move away?
3) Ideological projects – What other ideological projects can BJP pursue now, especially when the big ones are already delivered – Article 370 and the Ram Temple? Is whatever messaging and communication that was used in the past becoming stale? Is a new narrative needed? Are we still considered ‘cool’ on social media, or is the other side gaining ground?
3) Restoring Trust – Why did a certain section of voters believe the Congress over the BJP this time? There is talk of Congress issuing guarantee cards, of one lakh rupees paid to poor households every year. The bigger question is, why did voters believe Congress this time? For the Congress had promised something similar (Nyay scheme, Rs 72k/year) in 2019, only then people didn’t believe it.
For INDIA group too, there is work to be done. They should first feel grateful they did not get the majority. The alliance has done well in gaining seats, but deep down they know they were not ready to be in power. Who would be their PM? With the biggest party Congress at around 100 seats, there is no natural obvious alliance leader. People of India have trusted them more this time, but can INDIA grouping deliver an actual government that will last 5 years without a hitch? What would that look like?
The second aspect the alliance needs to be careful about is to pick its battles. With its newfound strength, it will be tempting to attack the government on every little issue, or even attempt to destabilize the coalition. The opposition’s job is to keep the government accountable. However, if INDIA members are seen as disrupting real work or nitpicking on useless issues, the group will lose credibility.
The third question for the INDIA alliance will be this: How do we grow from here? While this was a better-than-expected performance, growing from here will require a new strategy. The BJP will work extra hard to get their voters back. Will the INDIA group work just as hard to grow as well? Or will INDIA get complacent and think, well, our time is coming, so let’s just wait and we will come to power by default? Don’t assume the latter, for if there’s anything these elections have told us – do not take the Indian voter for granted.
Overall, these elections, even though carrying good news for everyone, bring with them a lot of continuous work for all political parties. No party can afford to be arrogant, complacent, or entitled. Everyone needs to work harder and get better to win voters. This, by the way, is exactly the point of a democracy. Which brings us to who is the biggest winner of this election – The Great Indian Democracy.