Recent reports suggest the Congress party may formally induct Priyanka Gandhi, the sole Gandhi left who hasn’t yet taken a shot at claiming leadership of India. Of course, since she is a Gandhi, she won’t work her way up through the ranks. Much like Bollywood star launches, she is expected to straight away lead the upcoming UP election campaign.
It’s hard when a party needs a new leader and the selection pool for the top job is limited to two reluctant siblings, one of whom has not clicked with voters. Hence, here are the presumable reasons for bringing in Priyanka, the only Gandhi left (TOGL).
The family has for too long been the face of Congress. While the party is down and out right now, without the Gandhis it is a bit like AAP without Kejriwal or Agra without the Taj Mahal – just doesn’t seem to make sense right?
The party hence pushed Rahul, continues to peddle him and India knows the man himself has tried. Yet, he can’t seem to win the hearts of Indian people. It could be his less than desirable oratory skills, a lack of clarity in expression, erratic commitment to politics and just an overall lack of conviction.
The night Rahul interviewed with Arnab Goswami of Times Now, India (and even Congress party workers) knew this is not going to work. Just as L K Advani had to go after losing two elections, Rahul should too.
However, where does that leave Congress? Enter TOGL, or Priyanka. Rahul’s sister was once called the Congress brahmastra: a final, undefeatable weapon. In the days of limited media and no social media, the image of a smiling Priyanka pulling her mother’s cheek at a rally was enough to send many into frenzy.
Her resemblance to Indira Gandhi, charismatic demeanour, young age and her being a woman made Congress believe she offered great potential. She clearly seemed reluctant and hardly surfaced in politics (save the occasional rally in Amethi or Raebareli). Her husband’s alleged involvement in murky deals hasn’t sustained her ‘brahmastra’ image either.
The decline of Congress fortunes further lowered the family’s appeal, so pulling out the Priyanka card now is unlikely to yield instant results. Once Priyanka is launched and in the forefront, India would know a lot more about her as a person. The young generation has no connect with Indira Gandhi anyway, so Priyanka will have to carve out her own place in their hearts.
Her initial public and media interactions will mould her image – is she a real leader, or is she there only because she’s TOGL? It will require 100% passionate commitment from her side. Maybe the time has come, if for nothing else than her kids are older. But if she isn’t in it 100%, Congress will blow this opportunity as well.
The timing and place of her launch is vital as well. Talk of making her campaign in UP is baffling. In the last Lok Sabha election, Congress won only two seats and had a vote share of an abysmal 7.5% in the state. Priyanka may hold some appeal, but to expect her to turn around such a tough and complex state is a huge risk. Congress may well still lose and Priyanka’s so-called star debut would be seen as a flop, never a good idea.
A better option is to save Priyanka for another sizable state where Congress is not down and out to this degree, but if there is victory Priyanka becomes an overnight superstar. That state is certainly not UP. The best choice for launching Priyanka would be at the next assembly election in Gujarat.
It seems counterintuitive at first, but look at the facts and one can see why it makes sense. Even at the height of the Modi wave in 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Congress managed a vote share of 33% (BJP took a whopping 60%). BJP has been in power in Gujarat for too long, its current CM is not of Modi’s stature. As anti-incumbency sets in and pockets of Gujarat become disgruntled with BJP – Hardik Patel’s movement is a case in point – Congress has a chance to move in and shake things up.
Make no mistake, it is still risky. Gujarat is a BJP bastion, and considering they have sent a PM to the Centre the state may still stay loyal to BJP. But if Priyanka is the CM candidate in Gujarat, and promises to look after all who have been ignored, anything can happen. Come to think of it, Gujaratis will see her as another PM candidate.
The media attention and hype if Priyanka pulls off a victory in Modi’s own Gujarat will catapult her into a national force to reckon with overnight. A loss would obviously hurt, but it wouldn’t be as bad. The fact that Priyanka tried her hand in a high profile election and fought hard in Modi’s state may well be enough to earn her some stripes.
UP, on the other hand, can be a damp squib for Congress given the many parties already entrenched there. There’s far more downside than upside for Priyanka in UP right now.
As TOGL, Priyanka is Congress’s only hope in the short term. Let’s hope they don’t blow it.
July 9, 2016 ()