The space is wide open. At least at this point there is no credible challenger to the ruling BJP in the run-up to Election 2019. Some people may argue that the Lok Sabha elections are still a while away, but given the opposition disarray, they better start preparing now if they don’t want the elections to be a cakewalk for the BJP. The odds remain in favour of the BJP government, which seems to enjoy satisfactory to good ratings as evidenced by the recent assembly elections. However, it is a weak democracy that lacks a credible opposition. For that reason alone, it is worth discussing how we can have a real election in 2019.
The dogged projection of Rahul Gandhi (even though it is crystal clear that Indians don’t want him at the top) and the Congress’s failure to satisfactorily address its past sins (scams) have weakened what was once India’s leading party. Apart from Congress, the only other alternative are regional parties. Though locally strong, they have never really shown promise to run the Centre well. A strong, rebooted Congress or the rise of a federal front could be the way to an opposition revival. Both seem difficult, though not implausible. Here’s how they could work.
For a Congress reboot, Sonia and Rahul Gandhi would have to announce three things. One, there would be sweeping party reforms, allowing for inner-party democracy, merit-recognition systems and internal elections to find a new leader. Most importantly, they would announce that Rahul is no longer the only choice for the top position. The family would eventually give up power, and be there to guide and advise. As this might create an enormous power vacuum, the family would retain control for a couple of years until the handover is complete. Once the new leader is identified, the Gandhis would promote him/her in every corner of the country to ensure continuity. Two, the Congress would have to create an internal system to ensure a repeat of past scams doesn’t happen. Three, it would need to take up an agenda of inclusive development and focus on job creation across societal classes.
This Congress reboot may or may not work. Some internal groups may try to break off. Yes, there are risks. However, the current Congress will definitely fail. Hence, change.
The second option is the federal front. State leaders in India have remained resilient through decades, despite any Gandhi or Modi wave. Whether through freebies or identity politics or genuine work, local parties have retained their hold, particularly outside the Hindi-speaking belt. Unfortunately, they have seldom been able to come together, apart from opportunistic last-minute coalitions at the time of government formation at the Centre. Obviously, such antics would not build national-level credibility. Also, CMs often place state interests over national interests. However, thanks to social media, state leaders can today easily express their views on national issues (a la Kejriwal) and even come together to present a unified, credible opinion on a subject. A ‘five-star’ federal combo of Jayalalithaa-Mamata-Nitish-Chandrababu-Naveen, for instance, would be a really exciting start.
To make it work, the grouping needs to be announced well before elections. A federal council would have to be created, comprising members from each political party in the group. Its job will be to look at national interest over state interest and resolve internal conflicts. The structure can be somewhat akin to the European Union, where a central body looks after EU interests and issues, while the states retain their powers.
Reboot & regroup: A new, improved Congress and a strong federal front are the opposition’s best bets
The big issue of who would be the front’s prime ministerial candidate would have to be addressed. This could be arrived at objectively through a combination of public opinion, size of constituent parties, internal consensus and the candidate’s pan-India marketing appeal. The federal front’s main agenda would be development, with the assertion that they are best suited to bring in inclusiveness and a Centre-state consensus.
It’s a tough ask: Indians are sceptical whenever regional parties get together. However, if done right, people will be amenable to a well-intentioned formation. After all, an ex-CM is our PM today.
A Congress reboot and a well-knit federal front — both opportunities are available to the opposition to get their act together. If they do something about it, we may have an interesting election. Else, they better be prepared to hear, ‘Lo phir ek baar, Modi sarkar!’
May 29, 2016 ()