Whoa! What was that Maharashtra result? The BJP led Mayayuti swept the recent Maharashtra assembly elections. Sometimes, the BJP doesn’t just defeat its opponent. It crushes them. It takes away their souls. The final results, out of 288 seats: Mahayuti: 233, MVA: 49. BJP standalone: 132 seats, Congress standalone 16 seats. Ouch! That must have hurt. I can’t even imagine the despair on the other side. The opposition MVA, comprising of three parties – the Congress, SS (UBT), NCP (SP), not only has to contend with a loss, but also faces an existential crisis in the state. The cadre must be demotivated beyond belief, and the party leadership in shock and denial.
Only a few months ago, this election was tilted towards the MVA. If one extrapolated the Lok Sabha 2024 results, the MVA was the projected winner. Considering state elections do not have the PM selection, or the Modi factor, MVA was expected to do even better.
So what happened? What made the Mahayuti do so well, and the MVA so bad? It seems to be a combination of the following five factors.
2, People may give their sympathy once, one is not entitled to it for life – the mutiny or breakout of the Shiv Sena gave Uddhav some sympathy. However, sympathy comes from emotions, and emotions are fleeting and don’t last forever (Ask the Congress about LS1984, a performance never repeated again). After a while, people choose rationally on which government would be more stable and ideologically aligned to them. June to November is a long time as far as emotions go.
3. People loved the slogan, people loved the scheme. (ladki behen) – Sometimes, things just click. The ek hain to safe hain slogan worked. The etymology what that ‘ek’ is still under debate, but the hit slogan did help consolidate the BJP and Mahayuti vote. Add to that the hit ladki behenscheme, involving direct transfers to women, and it all just worked. Sometimes, stars get aligned, you get lucky and you win big.
4. Any disappointment with the BJP already expressed in June – One never knows if there was true disappointment or anger against the BJP. However, even if there was, it has been expressed in June when the BJPlost some voteshare. However, anger is also a passing emotion. Time heals everything. BJP’s base is loyal and loves their party in the long term, and the recent results just show that.
5. Eknath Shinde passed the test of being a worthy successor – When Eknath Shinde rose to power, he was a relatively unknown and untested face for the CM levelpost. He also headed a breakaway group, which questioned his credibility. However, since then he hasmanage to govern the state to a level that people are happy with him. He’s built his own brand and even gets credit for the policies like ladki behen. It is worth noting that Eknath Shinde is still untested when operating standalone politically, which means when not in alliance or backed by the BJP. However, for now, he is one of the leading political faces in the state
What is the maha-sabak or big lesson from all this? What can the opposition do now? Well, first they should allow themselves a long grieving period. Such a knockout loss is not easy to get over. Once they feel normal, it would be time to face some harsh truths. First, realize that BJP knows what (a lot of) Indians want. They have their ear to the ground, listen to voters, change, even backtrack if they need to but ultimately do what it takes to keep their base and vote consolidated. Second, while BJP’s dominance is a truth, it is also true that many voters don’t like the BJP way of doing things. However, these voters are scattered.Unless there is that anti-BJP vote consolidation it is a hopeless case for the Congress in every election. For instance, a significant 15% of vote in the Maharashtra election went to the ‘Others’ category – which means neither the Mahayuti nor the MVA.
Congress at present has only two ways to win – One, divide the BJP vote, which they are trying through caste census etc. However, caste census has limited impact.The voter asks – what is the endgame of this caste census? What will I tangibly get after a caste census is done? It isn’t clear.
The second way the Congress wins is by consolidating theanti-BJP vote, which didn’t work this time due to a coalition of convenience with a confused ideology. Honestly, these vote cutting-consolidating manipulations will only go so far. Congress needs to make bigger changes. They need to re-look at everything – ideology, vision, slogan, policy, oratory and the big idea. Everything is missing or lacks clarity right now.
In life or politics, nothing changes if nothing changes. Expecting different outcomes, while doing the same mistakes each time will never work.
The Maha elections carry a Maha sabak, or a great lesson for all observing Indian politics, but especially the Congress and other opposition parties. They knockout punch must hurt the opposition, but sometimes that’s what you need in life to truly spur into action. Let’s see if the Maha-sabak or mega-lesson, will lead to Maha-karyavahi, or mega-action.