Turns out we Indians weren’t so lucky with the coronavirus after all. On February 1, India reported 8,500 daily new cases, down from around 1 lakh in mid-September last year. Many around the world acknowledged India’s success.
Those celebrations were short lived. At the time of writing this Mumbai alone is averaging more than 10,000 daily new cases, exceeding the all-India total on February 1. National totals are touching 1 lakh per day again and getting worse.
This tells us that Covid-19 is one of the most unpredictable viruses. Doctors, epidemiologists, government regulators, economic experts, forecasters, agencies like WHO and fortune tellers know or understand little about this virus. None can tell how it will behave.
However, we do have one option that remains our best bet to fight this virus – the vaccine. Humanity is lucky. Scientists have managed to develop a few vaccines for Covid-19. India was lucky. Serum Institute, a private Indian company, became a partner in the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine programme. Their vaccine Covishield, now approved in over 70 countries, is the most used vaccine in India as well. However, with the recent rise in case numbers, it needs to speed up the pace and do better.
At the time of writing this, India has administered nearly 8 crore vaccine doses. This happened in less than three months, making it a phenomenal achievement. Our vaccination programme has had a good pace. However, we need to take it to the next level to a ‘great’ pace.
We are currently administering around 30-33 lakh doses a day, or 2 crore doses/ week. To put these vaccination rates in perspective, we need to compare them to our population numbers. We have a population of 140 crore. Assuming we need to vaccinate 100 crore people at 2 doses each, we are looking at administering 200 crore doses. So, even at the current pace we are looking at 100 weeks, or nearly two years, to vaccinate all who need the vaccine.
Two years is simply too much time to continue to suffer. Our economy, people’s health and mental anxiety will continue until the vaccination programme is completed. We should aim to finish the vaccination in six months instead of two years. For this, we need to increase the current pace to four times the current levels, or to 8 crore doses/week.
Here’s how we can do it:
- Secure the supply: We are likely to run into constraints as we continue the programme. Fortunately, we have Serum Institute, which enabled us to get supply. If we didn’t, India too would be struggling to get the vaccine right now, like most developing countries. However, it also means we have tremendous dependence on Serum Institute. Serum also has contracts to supply to other countries. It had been exporting vaccines, which has currently been stopped or slowed down to cater to India’s needs. However, there is still tension and if we want to secure adequate supply, we need to a) approve more vaccines from around the world; and b) have more manufacturing facilities.
- Open up the vaccination criteria: The initial logic of allowing senior citizens first and then over-45s made a lot of sense, owing to higher mortality rates for these age groups. However, we now need to open up vaccination to all, particularly in areas with high cases. High population density cities with rising cases need everyone to be vaccinated as soon as possible, and those living in these areas should be allowed to get vaccinated, whatever their age.
- Vaccination@YourBuilding: Go to hotspots and vaccinate everyone. From news reports, the vaccination at home programme was rejected as it was deemed inefficient, because of the 30-minute observation period required for each patient, slowing down the vaccination process.
However, here’s a new idea – At your building vaccination. The vaccination staff can go to a residential society (particularly near hotspots first) and vaccinate everyone in the building compound. That way, the observation area for all residents can happen in the building courtyard. The building society can also pay for this service, and the funds can be applied back to the vaccination effort.
- Get more vaccinators and vaccination venues: We have a lot of venues already, but we will need a lot more. Every private hospital, dispensary and healthcare centre should be allowed to administer the vaccine. Just as with the corona tests, same for vaccines. Opening up the testing to private labs was when people could get easily tested. In some areas, even chemist shops may have to be turned into vaccination centres. Many schools are shut, and those can be venues as well. A quick programme to train people in administering the vaccine may also be considered.
- The vaccine thread bracelet: Each person who gets the vaccine should get a thread bracelet on their wrist, maybe with an Indian Flag weave design. It serves two purposes – a reminder for the second dose, and more importantly, a visible cue for other people who see it to remind themselves to get the vaccine.
We are fortunate enough to be one of the few developing countries around the world to have access to the vaccine. We have a good pace of vaccination underway. However, we need to speed up the programme, with a plan to vaccinate most Indians by Diwali 2021. This will go a long way in ensuring economic recovery, better health and far lower anxiety levels for citizens.