We are less than one year away from the biggest dance of democracy, the Lok Sabha elections of 2024. In less than fifty weeks, most Indian adults will be at polling booths. Given India’s size and scale, anybody serious about coming to power in 2024 should get into LS election mode.
In some ways, election season never really stops in India. TV debates and social media are a political battleground for various parties, where parties and leaders are praised and criticized 24X7. Add-in one of the frequent state assembly or even a municipal corporation election, and it lights up even further. Most of our public debate goes in shouting about who should be running the country, rather than how we should be running it.
However, general elections a different beast. Its India’s perennial election mode on heavy steroids. What to anticipate this year? Expect the most bitter, brutal, undignified and cringeworthy statements thrown around. As always, expect fake news. The truth will be irrelevant especially when the fake news ‘feels right,’ another way of saying ‘confirms my already existing bias.’ Adding to the misery this year will be the new advances in Artificial Intelligence or AI. Please expect AI generated fake speeches, pictures, videos and more. These will be mixed with some real stuff, adding to the confusion of what is real and what is not. Either way, we live in an era where most people have a) already made up their mind and b) do not want to do any brain-taxing activity, such as thinking. For most voters, the natural emotion will drive everything.
In this setup, the job of the political parties is to win votes from people. Here are some tips for both sides, the BJP led NDA and the Congress plus others.
Tips for the BJP (NDA)
What do you tell the world heavyweight champion, about fighting a featherweight? The BJP is going into the election on a solid footing, with PM remaining as popular as ever. The Congress is weak, as is the opposition. One might think the BJP needs no tips, other than sit back, relax, enjoy the show and coast right back into power. However, relax is not what the BJP does and that is why the BJP continues to win. The frontrunner BJP needs to put in the same effort in the campaign as it did in 2014. The world heavyweight champion also must train round the year, to maintain its fitness and keep the title. The BJP’s campaign will obviously be focused on PM Modi, their strongest trump card. However, they would not only need to talk about the achievements in the last ten years but what is planned in the next five years. Since the BJP is already so strong, it needs to be careful not to come down too hard on the opposition and be too heavy handed. Allowing the weaker opponent to claim legitimate victim or underdog status could go against the BJP. Finally, a few major spectacle events and milestones, done right can go a long way as well to inch up that vote share. The Ayodhya temple inauguration, the Delhi-Mumbai expressway opening (maybe a drive through on this), a few more metro lines opening in Mumbai are already on the horizon, to name a few of them. This, along with a couple of new policy or infrastructure project announcements will help win votes.
As far as the Hindutva politics is concerned, it should be part of the campaign as it does seem to appeal to a large section of voters (no judgement attached). However, like green chilies in daal, a little bit is amazing, too much sets your mouth on fire. This delicate chili balance, will work better for the BJP than going full throttle on the Hindutva front, which in turn alienates some voters. The Hindutva voters are already in the bag, why try extra hard for them?
Tips for the Congress/ Opposition
The first tip is to keep expectations low, and efforts high. The BJP is hard to defeat, has far more resources and a loyal voter base. However, that doesn’t mean the opposition should not try.
For Congress, the first step is to deal with the current legal situation of Rahul Gandhi’s disqualification. It obviously needs to get that disqualification removed as soon as possible. There should also be a backup plan if the disqualification stays. Who is the leader of the Congress then?
For opposition parties, they need to come together but it is easier said than done. Each party has their own leader, a star in their own right. To collaborate means to give up some of that stardom, and even potential power. However, without this collaboration, chances of defeating the BJP are absymal. It is also better if the opposition sticks to the UPA style arrangement, where its Congress plus the opposition. The Congress may not have as many seats, but Rahul Gandhi is the only opposition leader now with some national recognition. Whether that works for Indians this time remains to be seen. The other promising leader is Arvind Kejriwal, with AAP making dramatic progress in recent years. However, it still may be too soon for AAP to fight the BJP at the national level.
Apart from the collaboration arrangements, the real challenge for the opposition would be to figure out the message they are going with to the voters.
Why should a voter switch from the BJP to you? There needs to be an answer to this question, that isn’t just simple and unified, but also has emotion and purpose in it. Otherwise, it won’t resonate and the opposition getting together will be seen as opportunistic. The underdog card can also be played by the opposition. However, the underdog needs to be humble and must have a better plan than the frontrunner. Does the opposition have one?
Finally, with limited resources, the opposition will have to do a more guerilla campaign, relying a lot on social media and coming up with clever, catchy, emotional and relevant content. This isn’t about putting out jokes or memes. Great social media communication requires tremendous expertise, and the opposition needs to get that in place if it feels it has an outside chance. The opposition will also have to do a laborious and time-consuming face-to-face outreach in front of voters, to show them they exist.
For people with an interest in politics, exhilarating times let ahead. No IPL or even world cup match can match the excitement of a full blown all India Lok Sabha election. It’s crazy, not always pleasant but at the end of the day, it’s a wonderful thing to have elections in a democracy. Here’s declaring the election season officially open and wishing all the parties a lot of luck. All the best!