Gujarat saw a Goldilocks election last week. As in, the election results were ‘just right’. BJP won for a whopping sixth time, after already ruling the state for over two decades. To win a majority, despite the usual anti-incumbency that sets in after so long, is a major feat.
The PM’s appeal is still intact, despite radical and controversial policy decisions such as demonetisation and GST. It looks as if just as Sonia backs Rahul, Gujarat continues to back its own son Modi too. BJP also won Himachal Pradesh, winning almost two-thirds of the seats. Overall, it is yet again celebration time for BJP.
However, things didn’t go exactly as BJP would want them. The margin of victory in Gujarat was not like Uttar Pradesh a few months ago, where BJP captured 75% of seats. In Gujarat BJP won 99 of 182 seats, or 54% of the total. Congress won 77 which, though a losing figure, is not a washout.
Many thought Gujarat would be the safest state for BJP. No matter what you do Gujaratis will continue to support BJP because of, well, Modi. But BJP did not have a cakewalk in the state. What happened was BJP won from a combination of luck, better booth level management, lack of Congress’s belief that they can actually win this one and Modi’s political smarts being greater than Rahul’s.
In other words, it was a hard fought and hard won election that Congress could have won too. If a dozen assembly seats had gone the other way and Congress had come to office, it would have become a tectonic shift in Indian politics. If Modi lost Gujarat, BJP’s loss of face and boost in opposition’s morale would shake up matters in the run-up to 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
No wonder that at one point in the counting when Congress was ahead, the BSE Sensex dropped almost a thousand points. The stock market recouped the losses when BJP won, breathing a sigh of relief the government was stable and Modi in control. Hence, just this scare of a possible BJP defeat is reason for Congress to celebrate too.
However, after celebrations are done, it is time for both parties to reflect what they are doing wrong. The canny Gujarati voter has delivered a rap to BJP’s knuckles, without throwing it out. They have also encouraged Congress, but love isn’t overflowing towards them yet.
For BJP, they have to realise that while electorally the Modi brand is a golden asset, he is not a god or a superhero. Yes, those comparisons might work well as a marketing term, but in reality Modi is someone who gives a solid edge in the polls. He boosts the vote share of BJP by 5-10%, depending on the state, situation and type of election. Normally, such swings are enough for the party to win. However, to take this for granted is a mistake.
Of late BJP is making the pure vikas voter, the fence sitters who moved to BJP in 2014, nervous. The silence on love jihad murders, the opportunism on Padmavati and strategic muteness on hardline Hindutva are unsettling. Some who finally trusted BJP in 2014 get nervous when BJP panders to its hardliner base. This pandering is the reason why BJP seldom won in the past.
Hindus like their religion, but they don’t generally like impositions, bullying and a general atmosphere in which one feels scared. Eventually, the right opposition leader can harness this fear. The lesson for BJP is simple – more Vajpayee and less Advani, please.
For Congress, they need to realise there is still a lot of work to be done. Rahul isn’t ‘back’ as some say, and better performance in Gujarat is not because of him. A lot of Congress gains came from BJP’s mistakes, which accumulated over 22 years of rule, and BJP’s mishandling of certain movements (like the Patidar agitation). A lot of sympathy and encouragement Congress is getting on social media is from the people scared of BJP, who desperately need any alternative, whatever it might be.
This is not the same as people being attracted to Rahul or Congress. Waiting for BJP self-goals is not a pro-active strategy, and is unlikely to yield quick results. Congress has to set its own agenda. Moreover, rather than look to praise Rahul Gandhi for every small reason, it is better to acknowledge that he still has a long way to go.
Whether in terms of running a grassroots party or capitalising on political opportunities as Modi does, Rahul has a lot to learn. For instance, the way Modi milked the ‘neech’ comment is not something every politician can do. To be the PM and the most powerful person of India, and still be able to play a victim in the eyes of the public, is an art form. Rahul needs to learn it. Else, the Gujarat result would neither translate across India, nor eventually lead to Congress victories.
For the people of India though, the current election helped. It should hopefully tone down BJP’s hardline support, and make them work better as they now see a real opposition. Congress will be incentivised to work more too, as they do see a way to power, even though it may still be far.
The Gujaratis have spoken. We owe them thanks to make both our national political parties reflect and work harder.
December 23, 2017 ()