One of the BJP’s major political achievements in the past decade has been its ability to consolidate the Hindu vote. Since 2014, it felt like all the Hindus of India were finally coming together, something that has never really happened since Independence. This of course led to massive vote share gains for the BJP, and their performance in election after election became the envy of every other party. The Congress tried to crack a formula that would enable enough votes to come back to them, but nothing really worked. Here’s the eterna truth: if the majority Hindu vote remains consolidated for the BJP, there is no way the Congress and its allies could ever hope to come to power. This is why, post some recovery in the 2024 elections, Congress and its allies are again trying extra hard to get the essential ingredient they need for their formula to work – create cracks in the consolidated Hindu vote.
What exactly is the Congress formula that worked in the past: The D+M formula.
Here D stands for Dalits (or even SC/STs and other backward castes) and M stands for the Muslim vote. Congress has largely retained the M vote. The D became eroded because of BJP’s successful Hindu vote consolidation. And now, a somewhat rejuvenated Congress plus a new Rahul Gandhi on steroids is coming after this consolidated block. First, it was displaying Shiv-ji’s picture in parliament and saying BJP’s doesn’t represent the entire Hindu society. Now, it is the big hot potato – the caste census. Sure, there are intellectual arguments for and against the caste census. We can a few pros and cons here. But who are we kidding? Inherent intrinsic value aside, the issue is fundamentally political. It is a deft political strategy by the Congress, to get its mojo back. Will it be able to? It all depends on how the BJP handles it.
But first, let’s see the intrinsic value and costs of doing the caste census. The main benefit is to better understand the caste picture in the country. Not only finding out how many people exist of a certain caste, but also figuring out their socio-economic position. How many have cars for instance? How many have two-wheelers? What level of education are they at? Where do they live? What is their median age? Answers to such questions will reveal extremely valuable data. This data will help optimize various caste-based welfare measures, including reservations. India is still a low-income country with limited resources and opportunities. Still, we try with whatever we have, to re-distribute resources to the less privileged and correct historical wrongs. However, if our current measures are based on dated assumptions and incorrect data, it is likely we are wasting a lot of our resources as they end up not benefiting those we intend to. Today, we live in times where data gathering is used to optimize everything. Apps tell us the traffic data in every street, so we can plan our trip better. Advertisers use social media usage data to target ads better. Similarly, to have accurate data to enact welfare and reservation schemes at the national level seems like a no-brainer. As the saying goes, what gets measured, gets managed.
There are cons of the caste census too. The biggest one is that all these exercises ultimately keep the caste system alive. Even reservation, a caste welfare measure, keeps caste alive. What is our ultimate goal as a society? To have maximum reservation? Or that one day, some day, we will have a society where caste does not exist. Again, no easy answer. However, one thing is clear. Until caste-based reservation exists, having good caste-based macro socio-economic data is extremely important.
Ah, but these are all logical arguments! Ultimately, you cannot deny that this is as much about the politics. Just as there were logical arguments for and against the Ram Temple and Article 370. But ultimately, these two issues were also about the politics. These two issues helped consolidate the Hindu vote. The caste census, is opposition’s shot at scattering away some of the Hindu consolidation. Here’s how that will happen. When caste census data is finally released, there will be revealing insights about various castes and communities. Some might be doing better than expected (which should be the case, especially if reservations have worked). Others might be doing worse. The data will invariably point to a policy rejig, which means some castes will gain and some will lose. At a macro level, it may mean we have even more reservation, which will upset the upper castes. Or we might have some lower castes, which maybe doing better than some upper castes. All this will lead to discussions, debates, some confusion and yes, polticians will jump on it, taking their sides and if it all goes to plan it will do what is the poltical intention behind it – detonate and scatter the Hindu vote. Little surprise then why BJP is slow-footed around this one.
And yet, if we have reservations, we have to do a caste census at some point. Not doing it itself may upset the lower caste communities, which itself is a risk for the BJP. The Congress is trying to put the Chakryavyuh around the BJP this time, where the latter is trapped if it does and trapped if it doesn’t. It is now up to the ruling party to handle it with finesse. The first thing the BJP must do is to communicate that caste is a Hindu issue, and since they know Hindus well, they will only handle it. That there will be some form of a census, just not as controversial. Then, they could take slow steps around the data revealed by the census. The last thing the BJP should do is to come across as avoiding the census, and the Congress managing to convince voters that see, this is the case because the BJP doesn’t care for lower castes.
For the Congress too, it needs to be careful in backing this issue too hard. It doesn’t want to be seen as a political opportunist, and alienate the upper caste voters from the party, even before the caste census has begun. Congress also needs to reveal the results of the caste census already carried out in Karnataka, where it is already in power. Not only that, Congress needs to declare what actions it would take on the Karnataka caste census data. Essentially, it needs to walk the talk.
In India, real issues often get heavily mixed up in politics. To expect that anything related to caste would not be political is naïve. The Congress is taking a shot at slicing the BJP vote, using the caste census issue, which also has some merits of its own. The BJP must navigate this one with care, to ensure it takes the good out of the caste census while not falling into the Congress trap. Indian politics may have its flaws, but one has to admit it is always a lot of fun. The game is on, may the best political side win!