Remember the days of Kapil Dev? Or Kris Srikkanth? Or if you are from the current generation, think of Chris Gayle and Virender Sehwag. What did you expect when these batsmen came to the crease? Well, that they will settle in quickly and start making the big hits soon. The run rate will quicken, the match will get more interesting and, hopefully, it will be saved.
The Modi government was also seen as a big-hitter government. At least by the few people who care about the economy more than about who belongs to which caste or religion. Maybe it was the aggression in his speeches and his Gujarati entrepreneurial roots. Or perhaps the frequent references to reform-friendly statements like ‘minimum government, maximum governance’ and his pro-business Vibrant Gujarat summits as CM of Gujarat. Around the world, many expected a dramatic turnaround in India’s policies to unleash rapid growth. Unfortunately, that did not happen. The previous budgets (including the interim one) were tepid to say the least. Corporate India gushed, particularly over the Budget presented last year. However, it was more out of a desire to suck up to the new government than to actually present their view. Since the last Budget, the government did try two reforms that could have had a major effect — the land acquisition and GST bills. For several reasons including a hostile opposition, both didn’t see the light of day despite a majority government.
Meanwhile, the media and people forgot about the reforms and the economy (it may be important, but it makes for really boring television) and focused on domestic incidents mostly centred on identity politics and, well, just politics. The BJP lost a few state elections, suffered a loss of image in almost all controversies, and somewhat gave up on dramatic reforms. They almost never go through and the government gets criticized for it anyway. There’s little immediate political upside.
Meanwhile, political opponents now behave like trolls, attacking the government on almost whatever it does. Hence, the attacking player on the cricket field decided to not take chances. A little tip here and a little tip there. A few subsidies increased and a few taxes added. Maiden over. Budget done. Analysed for two days. Life as usual. I may not get applause. But at least I get to play and I won’t get out.
Sadly, this is where the BJP’s thinking is wrong. Imagine Chris Gayle getting scared of sledging and playing out three maiden overs in a T-20. In his hope of not getting out, he decides to occupy the crease. However, is that what he is there for? Will Chris Gayle be Chris Gayle if he plays defensive? Will Arnab Goswami be Arnab Goswami if he suddenly decides to not be angry anymore and conducts his debates in a calm manner? Will the Modi government really be a Modi government if it delivers budgets that create no meaningful change?
This is an existential question the BJP needs to ask itself. Sure, it has lost a few regional elections and some image. However, it cannot be what it is not meant to be — a tepid government, particularly in matters of the economy.
The Budget at the end of the month is BJP’s golden chance to demonstrate it can do what no other government can: reform India to make it deliver growth and jobs. The timing could not be better. China is slowing down. There is global panic over emerging markets, and equity markets are crashing. The world desperately needs to pin its hopes on something that promises growth. If BJP delivers a dramatic Budget that the global investor community loves, it will greatly boost confidence about India around the world. Half of economic growth depends on fundamentals. The other half is a self-fulfilling prophecy depending on confidence. If everyone believes India will grow, it will grow. For that to happen, we don’t just need a good Budget, but an amazing, outstanding, ‘oh my God you won’t believe what India did’ Budget. This could include removal of capital gains taxes, a massive government real estate divestment programme (to reduce debt), creating the simplest income tax structure in the world, privatizing most industries and many other suggestions eminent economists have given the government.
Politically, it may not benefit BJP overnight. However, it will earn the party what it has been losing in the media over the months: respect. If the Budget impresses the narrow section of influential people who watch the economy, it will create sympathy for the government. Contrary to trolls’ beliefs, you can’t buy the media. However, you can win them over. If not with great ideology, at least impress them with great policies. This Union Budget is an amazing chance for the government to save itself and the world. Don’t dodge the ball. Hit a six.
February 7, 2016 ()