There’s something special about January 1, isn’t it? It feels like a fresh start. There is optimism. New opportunities, new habits and new resolutions. All the best for that though. Turns out all this optimism fizzles out sooner than you think. Most New Year resolutions crash out by January 18, infamously referred to as quitters day. My suggestion: Just have one, solid resolution. Don’t load yourself up too much!
What would 2024 be like for India and the world? Just for fun, while acknowledging life is unpredictable, here are 24 predictions for 2024. These are divided into six areas – society, tech, politics, finance, health and relationships. With four predictions in each area, we have twenty-four predictions for twenty-twenty-four:
Society
- Better standard of living – India’s per capita incomes will rise another 7-8% this year, allowing citizens to live to slightly better than before. Also, a slew of infrastructure projects – roads, highways, trains, airports will open giving Indians a better quality of life.
- An early Diwali in January 2024 – the Ram Temple inauguration in Ayodhya! Fair to expect it will be one of the grandest events India has seen in recent times.
- Travel will hit new highs – Travel boomed post the pandemic. However, high airline ticket prices slowed down the party a bit. In 2024, expect airlines to finally add enough capacity to their fleet, allowing ticket prices to fall. Which, of course, will mean even more travel.
- We won’t blow up the earth, just yet – Humanity does seem to be on a self-destructive path. We create endless pollution, clear out forests, make nuclear bombs and currently have two major wars going on in the world. Sometimes it all feels too dire, but we will somehow trudge along and make it through one more year. Long term, well, who knows?
Technology
- Two words for tech in 2024 – artificial intelligence. 2024 is the year when we will go beyond ChatGPT. Have an airline ticket issue? Maybe a non-human AI call center that will instantly pick up your call and solve your problem fast.
- Tech related job risks – India’s software industry will need to reinvent (or suffer) as AI takes over a lot of tasks. Else those software jobs that used to be there for all Indian engineering graduates, will just not be there. Many other industries will require adaptation and change too.
- Cheaper, better phones – 2024 is likely to see price drops in phone and computer hardware, which means faster, prettier and cheaper phones.
- FaceID or biometrics everywhere – We have logins, passwords, barcode scans, physical ID checks – all done for security. However, your face as an ID can replace all this. It does raise privacy concerns, but the convenience offered is just too strong. One day, your face will be your Aadhar, PAN, licence, voter ID and maybe even your passport.
Politics
- The two mega elections – 2024 is the year of the two mother of all democratic elections in the world – India and USA. Both these elections in the same year happens only once in twenty years. Expect major excitement in India as we go to the polls in April/May and near global excitement for the US general election in November 2024. For avid election watchers, this is more fun than the cricket world cup!
- BJP victory in 2024 – While predicting actual election results is always difficult, given current trends and surveys looks like the BJP will come to power for a third-term in 2024. That will be an incredible feat for the BJP, the biggest and most successful democratic political party in the world.
- We will remain as polarized as ever – Right-wing vs left wing, North vs South, Android vs iOS, Hindu vs Muslim, Isreal vs Palestine, people will pick a side and keep looking for evidence to support their confirmation bias all year around. This means both sides would not talk and no meaningful solutions will be found. But at least each side will be convinced they are absolutely right while the other side is completely wrong.
- The Congress and INDIA alliance will struggle with its existential narrative – The opposition has worked hard. However, is still unable to set a clear, coherent narrative on what is their better offer on the table for voters to switch their vote to them. This isn’t just about having a better, punchier slogan. It requires bigger overhauls and changes. Unfortunately, 2024 will not be that year when the opposition is able to do that.
Finance
- EMIs and credit will continue to rise – Indians will make more purchases such as gadgets, cars and even handbags on ‘buy now, pay later’, EMI, credit card loans and other forms of leverage. Stay away from debt if you can. Savings are sexy, not products bought with debt.
- Rising trend of stock market investing – Individual stock purchases, SIPs and mutual funds will also continue to see growth, because we have low penetration. Will the stock market will also rise in 2024? That’s impossible to predict, but the long-term trend of any stock market is usually towards growth.
- Inflation could remain high – with two major wars going on globally, one doesn’t know their impact on oil prices in 2024. If these escalate, oil prices will rise and supply chains around the world will get affected. This in turn will lead to higher inflation.
- Education and medical costs will continue to rise – Indians spare no expense when it comes to educating their kids. Ditto for medical costs when it is a matter of life and death. Hence, we stretch ourselves to get the best. With more higher quality offerings, be it in schools or hospitals, the expenses will only go up. Save well for your kid’s education and medical emergencies.
Health
- Increased focus on a healthier lifestyle – with greater awareness from content on the Internet, people will be more serious about their health. India has extremely high numbers for diabetes and hypertension cases. Many of these can be reversed with healthier lifestyles. In 2024, expect more people to finish their steps and skip their desserts.
- Health fads and myths will continue – crazy diets, superfood obsession and unscientific beliefs on what is healthy or not will continue. People want quick, easy fixes for health and they sadly just don’t exist. No sauna or massage equipment can ‘burn’ your fat. Ghee cannot lubricate your joints. Mithai, even from an authentic old shop made with pure ingredients, is generally a bad idea for people who live sedentary lives.
- More gadgets and tools for health – expect more adoption of fitness watches, sleep trackers and and food dairy apps. Do they help? They can. They measure things. And what gets measured, gets managed. You still have to do the exercise yourself though.
- Obesity drugs – The better path to health is the slow and hard road of fitness, diet and exercise. However, we will see a huge demand for the newly discovered anti-obesity, appetite suppressant drugs like WeGovy and Ozempic. A rage in the USA, India is yet to adopt these and is likely to do this in 2024. They do cause hormonal changes and the long term effects are not known. Be careful! Choose the harder, cleaner path to health.
Relationships
- Marriage and kids will keep getting delayed – It’s expensive to get married and have kids. Rising real estate prices and school fees will make it more so. People are taking longer to settle in their careers and feel comfortable enough to get married.
- Growing dissatisfaction from virtual relationships – Smartphones have now been around for ten years. They are little magic boxes, sucking away all our attention and allowing us to connect with the world virtually. However, we all feel it – it’s not the real thing. Society misses real connections, life experiences and more fulfilling relationships. Go out there, meet people, make eye contact and talk to them face to face. It’s far more satisfying than being on the phone.
- Love marriages to gain share – In India, we classify marriages as love or arranged, even though love marriages eventually need to be arranged and arranged marriages eventually need to have love. In 2024, as young Indians want to make more choices on their own, love marriages will continue to gain share.
- Better acceptance of LGBTQ+ community – We still have a long way to go in LGBTQ+ acceptance. We do not have same sex marriages yet. However, India has made rapid strides in terms of Section 377 removal and society’s better acceptance of the LGBTQ+ community. Hopefully, we will do even better in 2024.
One doesn’t know how many of the above predictions will come true. However, whatever happens in the coming year for you, remember this – always believe that things will be better and strive to be better with the passage of time. Best of luck and a Happy New Year 2024!