Indians are complicated. We are a diverse bunch of people with so many variations – culture, language, religion, ideology and belief systems. To attempt to lay down a simple set criteria on how Indians vote is a near impossible exercise. Still, it’s peak election season, and we are all curious about what is going to happen. Until we know the real outcome on 4th June, 2024, let’s try to analyse how the Indian voter’s mind. There are four main criteria:
- The fixed vote – A sizeable percentage of Indian families have historically always voted for one party. This could be due to the party ideology, leadership and the family’s alignment to the party since generations. No matter what campaign, which candidate or whatever is in the manifesto. The fixed vote guys won’t budge. The (guess)timated size of this segment: 50% of Indian voters, across the two main parties. The BJP currently seems to have a bigger fixed voter base, say 30% of all voters. The Congress’ is around 20% of voter. There is little reason to campaign hard to switch this vote, which will almost never happen. No matter what Whatsapp forward they see, they will not change their mind. However, the parties cannot take the fixed voter for granted. They must stay aligned to the minimum expectations of the fixed base. As the saying goes, ‘Never annoy your base.’
- The strong yet connectable leader – This is the Lok Sabha election, which is also the PM’s election. Hence, the final PM face assumes utmost importance. In coalitions (such as I.N.D.I.A) there isn’t one PM face. While not a deal breaker, it does become a drawback. Of course, merely having a face is not enough. The face represents a personality, which must have certain desirable traits. The biggest quality is strength. Indians (and many populations worldwide too) like, rather absolutely love, a strong leader. The strength is demonstrated with the ability to take strong, bold decisions. India went through decades of slow implementation and massive analysis-paralysis. We also had a leader like MMS, who despite other qualities, wasn’t known for strength and boldness (that’s not what he was hired for, by real powers that put him there). This has only increased Indians craving for a strong leader. Strength is also demonstrated by sticking to an ideology and identity, despite it not being universally palatable or approved by the intellectuals. It shows a leader who forges ahead and is not easily fazed. A strong leader gives Indians a sense of safety and order. This need to feel secure often rises above everything else.
Apart from strength, another quality Indians love in a leader is the ability connect with common people. A strong leader, but who can come down to our level. Someone who can celebrate our festivals, eat our food, talk in our accent, charms us occasionally and generally just gets us and our desiness. This dual strength-connect combo is irresistible to a large (possibly 20% of all voters) number of Indians. As obvious, PM Modi excels in both these criteria. His strong leadership, consistent ideology and ability to connect with anyone from CEOs to gamers to villagers is tremendously adds to his and the BJP/NDA’s appeal. No wonder most opinion polls and pundits predict a big a big BJP victory, even in the third term. Why does the Congress (or I.N.D.I.A) underestimates this need in Indians? Why haven’t they been able to give their own alternative in the last decade? All baffling questions indeed.
- Identity Voter – Next after the Fixed Base and Strong Leader voter is the Identity Voter. This is possibly 20% of the voter population, which votes primarily based on caste and religion. They have their own good reasons for why they vote this way (especially if they are from minority castes or religion. If they do have a choice in terms of both parties meeting their caste/religion criteria, they may jump to any of the other criteria in this list.
- Policy voter – This is possibly 10% of the voters (one hopes it’s 10%, though estimate is on the higher side). These voters vote based on reasons linked to policy and governance. These could even just be welfare schemes such as free or subsidized items provided (such as grain or gas). Or it could be inflation, taxes, infrastructure, employment, healthcare, education or anything else linked to decisions made by the party once in power. These voters can swing, so they do offer an opportunity to be convinced with better manifestos, schemes, plans or an actual track record of governance. Even though it is a smaller percentage of voters, the swing can cause movement of seats. However, if the fixed base, leader based and identity based vote are already all aligned towards one direction, this segment alone can’t move the needle much.
Many of us wonder how the Indian voter thinks, and even get surprised at the results. Political parties of course, have a lot more at stake in terms of getting insights on the Indian voter. However, even in the diverse cacophony of a nation of 1.4billion, some patterns do emerge. Let the (world’s biggest) dance of democracy begin. Happy Election Season to all!