By the time you read this, dozens of articles have appeared on what the BJP did wrong in Bihar. Prescriptions on what the BJP should do now have also been given — from reining in Hindutva elements to speeding up reforms. The party, meanwhile, has taken the official reason for the defeat as “getting the voter arithmetic wrong”. If it was indeed about only the arithmetic, then the BJP could solve its problems by simply buying a few nice vedic math calculators. It is arithmetic and more.
In the previous Bihar assembly election of 2010, the BJP-JDU combine scored 39% of the votes. Opponents RJD and Congress competed separately, but still garnered 35% votes. Seems pretty close, right? However, the BJP+JDU alliance won a staggering 205 out of the 243 seats in 2010 despite just a five-point higher vote share. This was because BJP+JDU opponents had competed against each other and their votes did not add up. But this time, the JDU+ RJD+Cong combo scored 42% votes and won 178 seats. The BJP and its allies scored 34% and won only 58 seats. Again, an eight-point vote share difference led to a landslide defeat for the BJP.
So, is the official BJP line of “just bad arithmetic” right? Not really. For, the BJP has to remember three numbers if it wants to win elections: 25%, 33% and 40%.
The 25% is the BJP’s cult vote share or the bhakt vote share. For no matter what happens, the BJP seems to get near this percentage even in the worst of times. In Bihar 2015, despite the drubbing, it had a vote share of 24.4%. In Lok Sabha 2009, when UPA II won big, BJP had a 25% vote share. This 25% is no mean feat. To have a cult following in a quarter of the electorate is something to be valued and preserved. However, this 25% also consists of all the Muslim-hating, Pakistan-hating, homosexual-hating, feminism-hating, anybody-who-is-not-like-us-hating voters. These are voters who love Hindu supremacy and want beef banned. This core support is what the BJP doesn’t want to lose at any cost, for it defines them and keeps them credible in the worst of times.
However, here’s some news for the BJP people who seem to be weak at arithmetic — this 25% is not enough.
I won’t go into value judgments on how values held by some of these voters are regressive, bigoted and wrong for India. Few listen to moral arguments in politics. It’s not about morals, it’s about the math. Luckily for India, and unfortunately for the BJP, this 25% cult is not enough to win elections. Also, this 25% comes at a cost. For Muslims do not vote for the BJP (15-20% of the electorate). The media doesn’t like this 25%, which in turn makes them hostile to the BJP whenever the latter panders to them. With media being so powerful today, preserving this 25% means upsetting the 75%.
Hence, to win, provided BJP’s opponents do not gang up against the BJP, the right vote share seems to be the second number, or 33%, an extra 8% over the 25%. This is around what the BJP had in Lok Sabha 2014, when the opposition was disorganized. This share made the BJP win big. However, the party had to work hard for this extra 8%. It involved taking on a developmental agenda, engaging with industry, building support in the youth, finding some extra support in the OBCs and projecting Modi as a capable leader and making some rather lofty promises. This 8% non-bhakt vote came from fence -sitters who voted for reform and believed in the BJP for once. While smaller in size, this set of voters was crucial. It was also not unconditional in its love. Unfortunately, the BJP did not nurture them as it did before the election.
The 40% is what the BJP needs if it wants to win when its opponents gang up, like they did in Bihar. That is why despite polling 34% votes, BJP lost badly. This need for 40% is a scary scenario for the BJP. For this, it not only needs to keep its cult base, but also fulfill the promises made to the non-bhakt 8% and then win a further 7% of vote share from people skeptical of the BJP. One would have expected the BJP to demonstrate this with its exemplary performance after 2014. As the results show, it didn’t. If the opposition gangs up nationally in 2019 like it did in Bihar, the BJP may find it very tough going in Lok Sabha 2019.
This is all the maths the BJP needs to remember — the 25%, the 33% and the 40%. It needs to take a risk with its cult, and do something to please the 8% for now. Big bang reforms, real action against specific people making communal comments, real sensitivity on OBC issues will help. Lower taxes will too, as a lot of the 8% is the taxpayer crowd.
Keep every percentage point of your vote share happy to stay in power, and grow it. Cults don’t win elections. Political parties who are inclusive and please different kinds of voters do. It is time the BJP did that. Or it will fail the maths test again.
November 15, 2015 ()