It’s only been a few days since the Karnataka Assembly Election results. However, there are already dozens of articles, listicles, opinion pieces and TV discussions about why the BJP lost in Karnataka and Congress had an emphatic victory. Congress numbers look good, with 135 out of 224 seats. The BJP only managed 66. Congress had its best Karnataka tally in decades. A win is a win, and for Congress it is a big cause to celebrate. Experts are citing multitude of reasons for the Cong victory. They are 1) corrupt image of the previous BJP, which Congress managed to create well, 2) strong, cohesive local leadership of the Congress vs a fractured local BJP, 3) BJP running this local election like a national election, using the PM as the main selling point 4) BJP’s focus on communal issues, which doesn’t work well in Karnataka and 5) certain caste equations that went against the BJP. Some say this shows winds of change – the rise of the Congress and challenges for the BJP in 2024. Relax!
Let’s first just understand Karnataka. At first glance all the reasons for the BJP loss seem plausible. However, drill deeper into the actual voting numbers and you find some of the factors cited above are overblown. The first aspect to understand about the Karnataka contest is that it is triangular. There are three parties – BJP, Congress and JD(S) competing against each other in various combinations. In a triangular contest, ever slight differences in vote shares can lead to huge variability in results. Let’s took at the 2018 to 2023 vote share movement (rounded to nearest percentage), which was as follows. For BJP 36% to 36%, Congress 38% to 43%, JDS 18% to 13%. Meanwhile, the seat differences were massive. BJP went from 104 to 66 (down 46), Congress from 80 to 135 (up 55), JDS from 37 to 19 (down 18). The media and discussions disproportionately focus on the final seat tally, perhaps justifiably so. Seats are what matters. That’s how winners are decided and governments are made. However, if the aim is to understand what happened, one must dig deeper into vote shares. Let’s look at BJP’s vote share, which was 36%, the same as 2018. Does it look like a hugely unpopular, corrupt image, anti-incumbency situation? Does it look like an automatic rejection of the party’s ideology in Karnataka? With the same exact vote share last time, the BJP managed over a hundred seats. It was hailed as a winner. With the same exact vote share, the seat numbers went lower this time, and the ‘BJP rejection in Karnataka’ theories began to sprout.
The question is, what really happened? Why did the BJP lose so many seats if the vote share is still intact? The answer lies in the single biggest factor that influenced the current election – the continued decline of the JDS. JDS vote shares went from 18% to 13%, a drop of 5%. This 5% is incidentally exactly the rise in Congress vote share, which went from 38% to 43%.
Why did the JDS share decline? That’s a valid question, which needs its own larger analysis. However, this has little to do with national style elections, poor local coordination or whatever list items are being created today in the name of election analysis. Essentially, JDS decline has been a trend. People do not see the party as statewide regional party alternative. It is also seen as opportunistic (has made governments with both Cong and BJP, leaders have become CM despite not having single largest party status.) There’s too much influence of one family. Only one caste that tends to support it the most, which is the Vokalligas. Some of this vote has shifted in favor of the Congress, partly due to the issues with the JDS. Another possible shift from JDS to Congress is the Muslim vote, which consolidated this time to keep the BJP out. In that sense yes, BJP’s focus on issues like Bajrang Dal may have led to consolidation of Muslim vote to the Congress, while not bringing in the BJP any new fans and increasing its own vote share. This Vokalliga and Muslim vote shift to the Congress, which was a few percentage points of vote share, is all it took to upset the apple cart in a triangular contest.
Does this mean these results aren’t about the BJP and Congress, and their respective local/national leaders at all? No, everything plays a part. Keeping a vote share intact is also not easy. However, one can argue that the BJP despite being in power could not notch it up a few points more to ensure a comfortable non-coalition victory this time. The Congress, on its part, presented itself as a real alternative that could win an absolute majority, which may have made the JDS shift possible. To that extent, the parties and their workers do get their credit too. Does the Karnataka verdict give a shot in the arm to the Congress? For sure. But does tell what will happen in the next few state elections, and the big national election of 2024? Absolutely not.
Indian politics is an exciting game, a never-ending state and national tournament that keeps on throwing unexpecting results. Winners are winners and they and the hard work they put in must get their due. However, in elections, just like life, in the process of doing hard work, sometimes you get lucky too.
May 18, 2023 ()