The opposition grouping called INDIA, one has to admit, has managed to make some noise since its inception. After a long time, the opposition seems to have been able to capture imagination and at least set some of the narrative. From the naming of INDIA, to the public naming of the 14-anchors who’s show the group will avoid, they have managed to capture the trending topic of the day. The merits of the anchor cancelling is a separate issue. However, for once, INDIA is setting the agenda, not just reacting to it.
To become a twitter trend however, only takes you so far. The bigger and perhaps the only relevant question is this: Can INDIA make an actual dent on the BJP seat numbers in the upcoming 2024 election? That would involve winning seats from where the BJP won last time, which is a lot harder than making social media memes or creating a buzz.
The answer to that question is possibly yes, though it will be a long, hard road and will depend on four-distinct factors that are discussed below, all of which are in the INDIA group’s control to a certain extent. Do note that even if these factors all line up, the best case ‘dent’ could be a reduction of 80-90 seats for the BJP. It is unlikely that the BJP will suffer major losses, and it is expected to remain the single largest party. However, an 80-90 seat reduction will make the situation really tricky for the BJP and can lead to all kinds of scenarios, which is almost another column.
For now, let us look at the four factors that the INDIA needs to make happen to cause that ‘dent’, which in a way is the best-case target for the group anyway.
- The Breeze – If voter mood is more or less the same as 2019, there is no amount of seat sharing, permutations and combinations that INDIA can do to defeat the BJP. BJP wins most of its seats from the big Northern and Western states, where it won more than fifty percent of the votes. Hence, even if the rest came together in perfect sync, with the same voter mood, BJP will still get a lot of seats. There’s no massive gusts of winds of change in the country at the moment. At best, there might be a slight breeze, that is a little more sympathetic to the opposition (somewhat of a natural 10-year anti-incumbency breeze, plus 2019 had Pulwama-surgical strike effects etc which aren’t there at the moment). The breeze is what will swing the votes 5-10% in the other direction. INDIA has to create at least some breeze to make the numbers work for them. A plan for India, especially on areas where they think they will enact policies and laws to fix what is not right at the moment will help. Buzz and trending topics also help. Because ultimately, it is all about the breeze.
- The Individual party battleworthiness – No matter how many parties are in the INDIA grouping, if one goes statewise, many of the electoral battles are simply gladiatorial 1-1 contests. These are of two types, which are a) Congress Gladiatorial 1-1 contests, which will happen in Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh to name the big states. There are 119 seats at stake here, and the BJP+ last time won 112. Here, INDIA won’t help Congress. It is up to the Congress to do what it takes to bring BJP’s tally down. Ground level work, voter outreach, rallies, and the works. Dent possible: 20 – 30 seats. The second type of individual party contests are b) the Non-Congress gladiatorial contests. These will be the SP vs BJP in UP (possibly the hardest one), TMC vs BJP in West Bengal and AAP vs BJP in Punjab and Delhi. There are 142 seats at stake here, and the BJP+ won 91 last time. Dent possible – 30 seats.
- The Many-vs-1 contests. In some states with 3-sided or 4-sided contests, the arithmetic of the INDIA combination will matter and can deliver positive results. Amongst the big states, these will be Maharashtra, Bihar and Jharkhand. These contribute 102 seats and BJP+ won 91 last time. It will require, careful, co-operative seat sharing within the state on a constituency-wise basis. Dent possible – 30 seats.
- Letting go – Since the INDIA can only win with a combination of well-played 1-1 gladiator and many-vs-1 co-operative contests, there must be a letting go involved in the grouping, which again may not be easy. Not only do seats need to be shared in many-vs-1 contests, but the entire state must also be given to the INDIA frontrunner of the 1-1 gladiator contests. Much like the US electoral college, where the winner gets the entire state, here the party most likely to defeat the BJP should get a free hand to compete in that state. That is why, SP must be the gladiatorial contestant in UP, TMC in Bengal and Congress in Rajasthan. This dual theory, where parties must come together, but then sometimes have to let go to make another party compete best will be a delicate challenge, something the INDIA managing committee will have to navigate carefully.
If all the above factors work, then counting all the mini-dents of gladiatorial contests and many-on-1 contests, we get to an 80-90 seat reduction for the BJP. This is not an expectation. This is the best-case scenario for INDIA (the group). This is not easy. The BJP, one of the most astute political parties in the world, is probably making its own plan to counter this threat.
Elections are only fun if there is a real contest. Democracy is only strong with a strong government and a strong opposition. In that spirit, let both sides compete so that the Indian voter can get the best choices. Let the election season begin!