Everything’s the same, and yet everything is different. This statement sums up India’s politics after the elections. It’s the same government, although with fewer seats and alliance partners. It’s the same opposition, although in higher numbers. It’s easy, especially for the BJP, to view the results as a blip. A setback maybe, but with limited actual consequences in terms of being in power and running the government. BJP’s public statements allude to this business-as-usual attitude. Even the key ministers are identical to previous term. Yet, it would be naïve to think it is business as usual. Something’s shifting in the Indian voter’s psyche, and the BJP seems to be more vulnerable than it has ever been in the last decade. Upcoming assembly elections will give a clearer picture. However, at least in a section of BJP’s voters, there is some disillusionment. Yes, a lot of the BJP’s core base is still intact. However, that core is simply not enough in numbers to give BJP the thumping victories it has become used to in the past decade.
To understand this better, we can split the BJP voters in 3 categories:
- The BJP–A voter: The A can stand for Aggressive, Advani or Aligned (Ideologically). This is the BJP’s solid core base, comprising almost 20-25% of all Indian voters. They will vote for the BJP no matter what. They are ideologically of imposing their ideology. The BJP-A can also stand for BJP-Advani, as in the BJP voters under Advani’s time, which gave BJP 20-25% vote share under his leadership. This was a solid number, but sadly not enough for the BJP to comfortably come to power. That is why under Advani, the BJP won a fair number of seats, but never got to real power. At present, this base is still secure. This base believes that the BJP should stay tough about its ideology. They probably believe the BJP lost seats in 2024 because they weren’t hard enough. This base’s need for aggression creates a potential problem for the BJP, especially in a coalition and stronger opposition setup, where one has to be more consensus driven. For now, though, the base is secure.
- BJP–B: The B here can stand for Balance or Business or Builders. These are BJP voters who believe the BJP is the ‘Better’ party to ‘Build’ the nation, encourage ‘Business’ and better overall for the economy or governance. B’s believe that if for this BJP must have somewhat communal agenda then the ‘Balance’ is worth it. A bit of bigotry for a better economy? Fine, is what they say. These are the educated, professional, and enlightened class of Indians who felt the BJP deserves a chance in 2014, especially after news of scam after scam in UPA-II. B’s also comprise of the poorer sections of society, who liked the BJP’s welfare schemes, promises, and had more trust in them than the Congress. The BJP-B voters probably comprise around 10% of all Indian voters, who helped boost up BJP’s voteshares from the Advani era leading them to solid victories in 2014 and 2019. This category of BJP voters, however, has become shaky as evidenced in the election results. Somewhere, the “BJP for better development or welfare” voter is disappointed. The bigger problem is that BJP did not get this feedback, and lost the ear to the ground, something it normally did very well. Perhaps the delivery of promises has not happened at the ground level. Did the over centralized control did not work? Were the real problems suppressed by the media and officials working on the ground out of sheer fear? Did the BJP focus on the BJP-As too much? Whatever it was, a portion of BJP-B’s lost trust in the party, leading to lower vote shares and seats.
- BJP-C: The C here stands for Charisma or Charm. This is the BJP voter who just loves the Charisma and superhero like persona of PM Modi. This maybe around 5-10% of Indian voters, who will choose a charismatic, strong, larger than life leader over anyone else. PM Modi had absolute humble origins, and reached the top position of the country. He never has lost a major election, for decades. The superstar personality was somewhat justified. The first two terms with big majorities and certain bold decisions (Article 370, Demonetization, Surgical Strikes etc.) all created a persona of an invincible, ultra-strong leader. That is immensely attractive to some people, and the Charisma alone pulls in the votes. The BJP-C’s helped the BJP even in the 2024 election. This is why the party still won so many seats, despite the BJP-B’s not being as enthusiastic. However, this segment is at risk now. Functioning in this coalition government with a strong, loud and aggressive opposition may not allow that larger than life, invincible image to be sustained as well as it did in the past. Maybe a reinvention is needed. A collaborative yet charismatic leader can emerge. However, at the moment this segment is under threat. Incidentally, this is why the opposition is currently mocking, heckling, criticizing, and taking on the PM non-stop in parliament. The idea is to take away the charisma and invincibility image, so that the BJP-C’s scatter.
The three segments above, the BJP-As, BJP-Bs and BJP-Cs together combine to vote share of 35-45%. This is enough to propel and keep the BJP in power in most elections. However, right now the Bs and the Cs are shaky. And as the past has shown, just BJP-As are not enough.
For the BJP to only listen to their sycophants, feel that “everything is great” and “it’s all just due to misinformation spread by the Congress” is incorrect. The Congress has always tried to give voters a certain narrative and message. Why are they being heard now? Rahul Gandhi always gave speeches. Why is he having a bigger impact now? The BJP must take these questions seriously. Of course, the above analysis was oversimplified. Politics is far more complicated than ABC, but what doesn’t help is D-mode, where D stands for Denial. And that is what seems to be happening right now. Rather, accept the reality, figure out the problems, adapt and act. Do what it takes to get your non-base supporters back. Or else, they will fritter away. Adaptation is the key to survival and growth, not just in politics, but also in life.