With Mr Mallikarjun Kharge being unofficially referred to as the ‘official’ candidate for the Congress President polls, many say the polls are a forgone conclusion. The other visible and legitimate candidate Mr Shashi Tharoor, is seen to not carry the ‘official’ blessing. The word ‘official’, of course, is a euphemism for ‘approved by family.’
Qualities needed to become an ‘official’ candidate? One, long, long years of loyalty to the family. Two, no publicly expressed opinions of your own, especially when they differ with those of the family or are even mildly controversial. Three, no chance to strike out later on your own, rock the boat or become high profile later. Essentially, channel your inner Manmohan Singh.
It’s great to be an ‘official’ family candidate, particularly when the latter enjoys huge popularity amongst the people of India. You get a nice fancy title and perks, while the family does the hard part of keeping its popularity and pulling votes. This system worked rather well for the Congress from 2004-2014.
The problem comes when the family isn’t as popular anymore. When they have badly lost two general elections in a row, and chances in the next one is also bleak. It is then when major reform is needed. Either the family does the reform itself, or the appointed ‘official’ person does the same. However, if prerequisites of being an ‘official’ appointee are that you are not supposed to have independent ideas, opinions or profile, how will you enact any change?
That’s the dilemma facing the Congress. The family is trying a tried and tested model of ‘official’ candidates, which they remote control, in important party positions. The official candidate is chosen exactly because he isn’t going to ‘rock the boat.’ But what to do when you need a boat-rocker the most?
Enter Mr Shashi Tharoor, brave enough to contest the Congress Presidential election (at least he is at the time of writing this.) While he doesn’t have the ‘official’ card, he brings a lot of things to the table. He’s educated, an experienced ex-diplomat and most importantly, won three Lok Sabha elections in a row on a Congress ticket, an extremely rare event in recent times.
He’s been advocating change in the Congress for a while. He’s obviously known for his erudite English, but here’s another thing – his Hindi is now pretty good too. While he may have certain anglicized mannerisms and accents, he does have an ear, and most of the times, his feet on the ground in real India. He’s one of the few high-profile leaders of the Congress, who is media-friendly. There is the unnecessary ‘elite’ jibe made on him, but he’s won Lok Sabha elections fair and square, three consecutive times.
Alas, all this may not go too far. In private, every Congressperson talks about the need for change. In public, they can’t stop singing praises of the ‘official’ candidate. Mr Tharoor has an uphill battle. However, there are chances he will leave a mark and an outside chance that the Congress will be changed forever.
Here are three likely scenarios of the Congress presidential poll and their impact:
One – Mr Tharoor wins. Probability – 5%. This is the lowest probability outcome, but if the PCC voters put a hand on their heart and vote for change and Mr Tharoor pulls a win, Congress will be changed forever. This is no longer just a Congress President poll. This is a Family or No-Family poll. If 4,500+ PCC members vote for Tharoor (or even if they simply vote against ‘official’), Congress, Indian politics and India will be changed forever.
Two – Mr Kharge wins with a handsome margin. Probability: 75%. The odds are always in the ‘official’ favor. If he does win, despair in the Congress will continue. However, Mr Tharoor will still be seen as a hero. He walked the talk when it came to change and lost only because it wasn’t a level playing field. He will keep his place in the party, or if the ‘official’ crowd becomes too mean to him, other parties will be waiting. The new ‘official’ president will be a redundant post, never taken seriously. The slow decline of Congress will continue. Other parties (like the AAP) will keep making inroads in India.
Three – Mr Kharge wins, but Mr Tharoor gives a real fight (Probability: 20%). This scenario has not been discussed enough. If Mr Tharoor loses, but still manages say a quarter of the 9,000 odd votes, it will create a dent in Mr Kharge’s election and the family’s grip on the party. The change-seekers will realize victory was within sight, if only they had believed in it a little more. The new President’s position will be shaky. More proxy battles for control of the Congress may happen soon.
Odds are Congress will not change much. However, there is decent chance of significant change as well. No matter what happens, if the polls are indeed held, they will leave an impact. Mr Tharoor is in a no-lose position. Sometimes you get marks for just putting up a tough fight. And who knows, Oct 19, the day the Congress President results come, might just be the day the boat is rocked, something the Congress needs the most at present.