The Modi government won its first trust vote on Friday. No surprises here, barring that hug of course. But 2019 may be another story.
Rewind to 2014, when something unusual happened. A section of liberal and evolved citizens switched their vote in favour of the BJP. These were folks who vote on issues like economy and jobs instead of identity, cows and temples. For the purpose of this article, let us call them Enlightened Voters or EVs.
Despite BJP’s Hindutva roots, many software programmers, students from elite campuses, bankers, doctors, teachers and educated people pressed the button on the lotus in 2014. The reason they did so was Narendra Modi, the sole ray of hope then. After all, he had led Gujarat, which was apparently doing very well. He said what people wanted to hear. There was the SRCC speech — where he said the glass was always full, “half with water, half with air”. It signalled an optimism and confidence few leaders had ever expressed. There was also his “minimum government, maximum governance” comment, signalling a belief in setting the economy free.
And so EVs didn’t just vote for BJP, they also cheered for Modi. Not out of a bhakt mentality — EVs don’t think like that — but because they really felt he would change India and deserved a chance. Anyway, all this enthusiasm worked. The BJP blazed to power.
So here we are, 50 months later, with a government that said ‘just give us 60 months’. Well, where are the EVs at 50 months?
The three important questions are: Are the EVs feeling let down? What will they do in 2019? And finally, are they large enough in number to matter?
The answer to the first question is broadly yes, even though the degree of disappointment may vary. When you promise ‘achhe din’, you essentially promise that all problems will go away. Of course, such expectation is almost impossible to meet. But even at a practical level, there have been disappointments. The economy, by and large, is chugging at the same pace as before. Regulations have only increased. The key driving assumption — control businesses with a stick — is not too different from how it was half a decade ago. The key game-changing policies of the government did not get the economy roaring. Demonetisation had leakages, and many experts feel GST is too high and has too many bands to work well. Though identity politics dominates India, fact is the economy does matter.
A sluggish economy for five years means India lost another half a decade. Our Asian counterparts, when they were at similar per capita GDP levels, grew in double digits every year. We find it hard to maintain 7% growth. Over a decade, this GDP growth rate difference means per capita incomes will be half of what they could have been. Or, an average Indian could have had double the income they do now. The number of jobs created would have followed a similar pattern, as would the rise in tax collections. A fast-growing economy solves a lot of problems. It was the only thing that could have delivered on 2014 expectations, but was not given enough importance — a major miss by the government. The other schemes, however noble and wonderful, just wouldn’t have the same effect. Let’s face it, nothing creates achhe din better than a fat wallet.
Missing out on the economy, the government revved up the other item in BJP’s arsenal: Hindutva. Cows became headlines and priests became CMs. This made EVs really nervous. Slower GDP growth is disappointing, but a nation divided is scary. Maybe the government had a calculation in mind when revving up Hindutva, but it lost them many enlightened voters.
The second question — what will EVs do in 2019? — is harder to answer. Enlightened voters are practical. They don’t see a decent alternative to the current government right now. They might just give it another chance. However, some are bothered about the polarisation and will vote differently. My guess is the EV vote will be split down the middle.
But do the EVs even matter? After all, in a land where caste and religion dominate elections, who cares about a bunch of educated people who want the economy to grow faster? Yes, EV numbers are small. But so are victory margins in many seats. Also, the newer voters, those 4G data-consuming types who turned 18 after 2014, are more likely to be in the EV category.
Overall, the impact of letting down the enlightened voters will be felt by the BJP in 2019. One gets the feeling that the party is underestimating their impact. This could be the only reason why the Hindutva card is being played out more brazenly than ever before. However, it may make sense for BJP to direct its efforts in winning back EVs. Hindutva voters may be loyal and great for the party, but to win, enlightened voters matter too.
July 22, 2018 ()